Dalvin Cook has prime matchup vs. Chargers

We head into Week 10 following a couple of tough beats. I feel like this is a recurring theme here lately. Let’s try to reverse that trend and pick some winners! I’ve done the research for you in case you’re feeling a little frisky and want to place a wager on a prop or two.

Here are some players I’ve identified that could be profitable for you.

Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 12-15 (-5.25 units)

Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers 4:05 p.m. ET

Wager to watch: RB Dalvin Cook total rushing yards (Over 90.5 -110, Under 90.5 -130)

The Vikings visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Chargers fresh off back-to-back losses, while Los Angeles escaped with a last-second win in Philadelphia last week. We want to zero in on Dalvin Cook’s total rushing yards prop here.

Cook carried the ball 17 times for 110 yards that was highlighted by a 66-yard scamper in Minnesota’s overtime loss in Baltimore last week. He is averaging 4.8 yards per rush this season with three runs that have exceeded 20 yards. If you dig into the advanced numbers, Cook has been meh this season by averaging just 2.0 yards after contact, but his 71.3 positive run percentage is above league average. The 26-yar-old running back is getting 21.7 touches per game and is on the field for 70.40 per cent of Minnesota’s snaps on offence.

The Chargers, meanwhile, have been a disaster when trying to stop the run this season. Los Angeles is dead last in the NFL by giving up 161.6 yards per game on the ground. The Bolts have also coughed up 154.5 rushing yards at home this season which ranks 30th in the league.

Take a wild guess on who the worst team is against running backs over the past eight weeks? Yup, it’s the Chargers. LA is giving up 4.88 yards per carry to running backs which is dead last and surrendering 933 rushing yards to running backs which is 31st.

Pick: The Chargers continue to show that they can’t slow down running backs this season. Mike Zimmer wants his Vikings to be a run-first team and this matchup is just too good. Take Dalvin Cook’s total of 90.5 rushing yards to go OVER at -110.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders 8:20 p.m. ET

Wager(s) to watch: TE Travis Kelce total receiving yards (Over 75.5 -120, Under 75.5 -120), TE Darren Waller total receiving yards (Over 68.5 -120, Under 68.5 -120)

The Chiefs visit Las Vegas to face the Raiders in this crucial AFC West showdown on Sunday Night Football. One of these teams could find themselves alone in first place in their division by the end of the night, but we want to focus on is a pair of superstar tight ends and their receiving yard totals.

Travis Kelce caught five passes for 68 yards on eight targets against Green Bay last week. Kelce has 54 receptions for 628 yards this season which ranks first in both categories for tight ends this season. Volume once again isn’t an issue whatsoever for the 32-year-old tight end. Kelce has received 79 targets and is averaging 7.9 yards per target this season.

The advanced metrics on Kansas City’s No. 1 tight end are terrific as usual. He’s averaging 70.8 air yards per game, 1.22 air yards per snap and his average depth of target is 8.0 yards. Kelce is also averaging 22.3 per cent of the Chiefs’ team targets and is playing an average of 85.15 per cent of KC’s snaps on offence. The All-Pro tight end also murdered the Raiders last season. Kelce racked up 16 receptions (8 per game) for 235 receiving yards (117.5 per game) on 22 targets (11 per game) against Las Vegas in 2020.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have been struggling to stop tight ends this season. Las Vegas’ pass defence has given up 515 receiving yards to TEs over the past eight weeks which ranks 30th in the NFL. Vegas has yielded 8.05 yards per target to tight ends over their past eight weeks which is 22nd in the league during that span.

Darren Waller returned from a one-game absence and hauled in seven receptions for 92 yards on 11 targets last Sunday against the Giants. Waller has 40 receptions for 470 yards in seven games this season for the Raiders. The 29-year-old has averaged 7.3 yards per target on 69 targets in 2021. Waller is also averaging 90.1 air yards per game, 1.53 air yards per snap and his average depth of target is 9.7 yards. Waller was rock solid against the Chiefs last season and had 12 receptions (6 per game) for 136 yards (68 per game) on 14 targets (7 per game).

Kansas City has been on the struggle bus this season when trying to slow down the tight end position. The Chiefs have coughed up 9.75 yards per target to TEs over their past eight weeks which ranks 31st in the NFL. KC has allowed 497 receiving yards to tight ends which ranks 27th in the league over the past eight weeks.

Pick: Both the Raiders and the Chiefs haven’t done a good job of shutting down tight ends over their past eight weeks. Travis Kelce has feasted on the Raiders in his career, while Darren Waller has had plenty of success against the Chiefs. I think there is value here with this matchup setting up nicely for both players. Take Kelce’s receiving total of 75.5 to go OVER at -120, and grab Waller’s receiving total of 68.5 to also go OVER the total here at -120.

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